recap Ideas

The PCE of May was better than the previous value, and the power of shorts has slowed down. This Friday will usher in important NFP. This will restart the medium-term trend. Many financial markets pulled back after rise in NFP in last month. Although we all know that the increase in NFP is likely to come from political needs and the increase in illegal immigration. Therefore, there is a divergence between it and the unemployment rate. However, with the market's full interpretation, we believe that as long as NFP is not significantly higher than expected, the market may ignore NFP and price a...

The market outlook The market fell further as we expected last week. During the economic data window, the market began to price in only one interest rate cut this year. This is not just for the crypto market but for all financial markets. This situation is likely to last until early July before bulls come back and bring enthusiasm again. During this period, the PCE released this Friday will bring about a small rebound. BTC ETFs and market sentiment In addition, multiple BTC ETFs have experienced net outflows for several consecutive days, which is also a microcosm of the US market sentiment. After...

Bitcoin and US Stocks Rebound After the CPI data released by the Labor Department last week showed that inflationary pressures further eased in May, BTC and US stocks rebounded significantly, covering the decline caused by the previous employment data. FOMC Announcement However, in the subsequent FOMC, the dot plot showed that the median number of interest rate cuts this year was one, which was lower than the market expectation of two. And at a later press conference, Powell said that inflation had further eased, but was still higher than planned. This takes into account the CPI. The markets fell on the news. Crypto Market...

Employment Data and Market Trends Employment data was released last Friday. Although the unemployment rate rose to 4%, the number of NFP exceeded expectations, reaching 272,000. The data performed average, but due to market expectations were too high, there was a correction after the data was released. Not only in crypto, gold has also seen an obvious correction. Market Predictions and Interest Rate Cuts The market currently predicts that the number of interest rate cuts in 2024 will be reduced to two times, in September and December. The CPI and FOMC for May will be announced on Wednesday and Thursday this week. We...

U.S. Macroeconomic Overview Last Wednesday, the U.S. Department of Labor released CPI data for March. While the predicted value was higher than the previous value, the actual value was higher than the predicted value. This also means that the CPI will be worse than expected in the first four months of 2024. BTC and US stocks fell. With Federal Reserve officials and Biden promising to cut interest rates in 2024, market sentiment calmed down and BTC turned higher. However, the interest rate cut promised by officials was quite different from the June rate cut expected by the market at the time,...

The BTC Halving is less than 20 days away. In the recent three BTC halvings, it has experienced a correction after the halving and refreshed ATH in the following 6 months. Currently, most tokens on the market are waiting and observing whether BTC can break through 72000. On-chain Data Insights We learned from Glassnode that after BTC exceeded ATH in mid-March, many long-term holders began to take profits. The age of BTC has declined and the realized price has increased. This phenomenon has often appeared at the beginning of a pullback in the past. On-chain Activities More and more BTC and ETH are participating in...