If history repeats itself - and so far history has repeated itself for Bitcoin every 4 years, we have not seen the true face of the Bitcoin bull market yet.
Let's have a closer look at where and when things could really go ballistic to the upside by analysing its so-called logarithmic regression:
You will see 3 different areas of importance on this chart:
1. A purple line showing the current "fair" price of Bitcoin according to the regression
2. A green channel marking the price area where Bitcoin should spend most of its time
3. A red channel marking the projected blow off tops for each bull run
The pattern we usually see is that after a top somewhere within the red channel Bitcoin eventually falls back to the green channel (and sometimes below it) to then settle roughly around the purple line at the time of the halvings.
What do these findings tell us about the current state of the bull market?
Let's look at the price behaviour after the halving of 2016 and 2020.... It took Bitcoin around 300 days after the 2016 halving and 220 days after the 2020 halving to finally breach the green channel to the upside and go into, what I call, full degen frenzy bull market mode. This is the area between the green and red channel, where prices go ballistic and influencers on social media will talk about the how everything will be different this time and how everything is only going up from now on.
As you can see Bitcoin currently is still quite far away from leaving the green channel to the upside. In fact if it would go into full frenzy bull market mode right now we would need to see prices well above 90,000 USD. If history repeats itself again and we can expect the price to leave the green channel to the north sometime 220 to 300 days after the halving. That would be sometime between November 2024 and February 2025 - the top of the green channel will then be around 100,000 USD.
Price will then probably rise rather quickly to the red channel again where it will eventually top out and, once again, enter a bear market. Top prices should be somewhere between 200,000 USD and 300,000 USD in 2025. It is then time to get out of the market and go into hibernation once again to come back once the lower green band of the logarithmic regression is reached.
The good news is....with prices currently around 67,500 USD there is still plenty of money to earn even until reaching the phase where the price of Bitcoin will really go ballistic. The bad news is... most people will be left behind and will probably fomo into Bitcoin (or the worse alternative: Altcoins) at prices between 150,000 USD and 200,000 USD.
This, of course, is just my own opinion and no financial advise!
